According to a report by the YOLE Group, global optical transceiver market revenue slightly declined from $11 billion in 2022 to $10.9 billion in 2023, but it is expected to reach $22.4 billion by 2029. Driven by a surge in AI infrastructure orders from NVIDIA and the upgrade of data center networks to 800G, the market's revenue growth rate is projected to reach 27% in 2024.

Light Counting’s September report indicated that optical module sales exceeded $3 billion in the second quarter of 2024, reflecting a growth rate of over 30%, or about $1 billion. Ethernet optical module sales doubled year-on-year, with most of the growth driven by strong demand for 400G and 800G modules. Although demand for telecom optical modules improved, it remained weak.

In another report, Light Counting also predicted that the datacom optical modules used in AI clusters would more than double in 2024, with this growth continuing through 2025 and 2026. By 2024, sales of optical modules for AI clusters are expected to surpass $4 billion, up from $2 billion in 2023 and less than $2 billion in 2022. YOLE Group also forecasts that in the datacom segment, the AI-driven optical module market will experience 45% year-on-year growth in 2024.

Light Counting further stated that current demand for 4×100G and 8×100G transceivers exceeds supply by more than 100%, with many deliveries pushed to 2025. Forecasts suggest that the market for 4×100G transceivers will increase by $500 million in 2025 and by $1 billion in 2026, while the market for 8×100G transceivers is expected to grow by $2 billion in 2025. Sales of these modules are projected to exceed $7 billion by 2026. Additionally, by 2029, the total sales of 1.6T and 3.2T transceivers, LPO, and CPO are expected to reach nearly $10 billion, comprising the majority of AI cluster optical sales. LPO/CPO ports are forecasted to account for more than 30% of the total 800G and 1.6T ports deployed between 2026 and 2028.