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LightCounting predicts that sales of FTTx optics will return to growth in 2020-2024


In its just-released annual Next Generation Access Optics report and forecast, Lightcounting notes that sales of optical transceivers for wireless fronthaul and backhaul more than doubled in 2019 because of acceleration in deployments of 5G in China.The market segment will continue to grow rapidly in 2020-2021, but it is expected to decline thereafter.


The main reason is the change in 5G deployment in the Chinese market. Chinese service providers plan to complete most of their 5G fronthaul deployments in the next 2-3 years. After this, demand growth from all other regions will not be enough to compensate for the decline in Chinese market demand. Service providers in the US and Europe have a lot less fronthaul fiber deployed and other regions are even farther behind.While all service providers will continue to deploy more fiber and fronthaul optics, all these projects combined will not be able to match the scale of initial deployments of fronthaul optics in China.

Lightcounting also predicts that sales of FTTx optics will resume growth in 2020-2024. The total number of FTTx users of China Mobile and China Telecom accounts for more than 50% of the total number of global FTTx users, so this increased demand is mainly affected by these two service providers. China Mobile and China Telecom plan to expand the deployment of 10G PON ONUs to support higher speed connections in 2020, and will continue to dominate the global demand for FTTx optics in 2020 and beyond.

Although some small countries have higher penetration of FTTx and mobile broadband, other large countries rely heavily on market forces to invest directly in fixed and mobile broadband. Therefore, in terms of the consumption of wireless and fixed access optical devices in the next five years, China will still be the largest single country market in the world.

Article source: Lightwaveonline


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